Sarmatic) Plain, with rivers and creeks overflowing. The winter snow is swiftly melting on the East European (a.k.a. Yet despite intermittent clashes, the line of control in Donbas has not moved at all since the last big offensive by regular Russian armed units, in February 2015, which pushed the Ukrainian military out of the Debaltseve bulge north of Donetsk.Īs both sides accuse each other of initiating the present clashes (see EDM, April 5), talk is growing in Moscow, Kyiv, and in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk of a major escalation that may dramatically upend the present stalemate: Either the Ukrainian military will move forward decisively to reach the Russian border and push the Moscow-backed forces out of Ukrainian territory, or the Russians will use the pretext of resumed fighting to massively go in, defeat the Ukrainians and dramatically extend their zone of control. The ceasefire agreement arranged in July 2020 has largely collapsed. Increasingly deadly skirmishes between Moscow-backed “separatist” forces and the Ukrainian military in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas have claimed the lives of dozens of combatants and civilians since January 1.
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